25 Condos, 0 Rate Cuts, and 1 Big Policy Shift

📊 Rate Watch: 📉 Inflation cools, but no BoC rate cut expected just yet.

Here's where mortgage rates stand as of November 28, 2025. Despite a drop in inflation to 2.2%, the Bank of Canada is expected to hold its policy rate steady at the upcoming December 10 meeting. Bond yields remain stable, meaning no significant pressure on fixed mortgage rates for now.

Canada’s inflation rate eased from 2.4% in September to 2.2% in October (year-over-year), in line with expectations. The Bank of Canada’s core inflation indicators were mixed, suggesting no major shift in its inflation outlook for now.

Shelter remains the biggest contributor to inflation, accounting for 30% of the CPI. As rent growth slows (despite the somewhat surprising 1% increase month over month) and mortgage rates continue to fall from their peaks, inflation should ease further—giving the BoC more room for rate cuts next year.

For now, Government of Canada bond yields remain stable, with minimal reaction to inflation data. Fixed mortgage rates are steady, and variable-rate discounts are unchanged. The BoC is not expected to cut its policy rate at its December 10 meeting, but at least one 0.25% cut is still expected most likely in early 2026.

Ron’s Take: Fixed rates are around long-term averages. We prefer five-year terms esp. as we’re now seeing pricing to be similar, at least for select client profiles. Variable rates may win out over time—but only for those comfortable with rate fluctuations and potential short-term cost increases. Our advice currently is against variables for most clients as bank of Canada’s rate easing cycle is almost over.

Real Estate Radar: Rental Market Slows—But Not for Long?

Tracking the Pulse of Canada’s Rental Markets

As the leaves fell in October, so did average asking rents across much of the country—though signs are emerging that the rental market’s descent may be easing. This edition of Real Estate Radar dives into the latest national and provincial rent trends, highlighting where prices are softening, where they're quietly climbing, and how key Ontario cities are positioning themselves in this shifting landscape.

National Trends Signal Bottoming Out
October marked the 13th straight month of year-over-year rent declines in Canada, but at -2.2%, the drop was the mildest in nearly a year. Average asking rent stood at $2,105—down slightly from last month, and still $259 higher than pre-pandemic levels in 2019. The rental market appears to be stabilizing as winter approaches, with activity nearing historic seasonal lows.

Ontario’s Position: Easing, But Resilient
Among provinces, B.C. (-5.8%) and Alberta (-5.3%) led rent declines, while Ontario experienced a smaller dip of -2.2%, bringing average rents to $2,299. Ontario cities continued to dominate the list of Canada’s most expensive rental markets, including Oakville ($2,627), North York ($2,547), and Toronto ($2,551). However, even high-demand markets like Toronto saw two-bedroom rents drop 7.4% year-over-year.

Shared Living and Secondary Markets Shift
Shared accommodation rents hit a 28-month low nationally, with Ontario’s average down 6.6% to $1,009. Interestingly, Ottawa bucked the trend with a 19.1% increase, reflecting growth in co-living developments. Meanwhile, smaller cities like Brantford (+7.1%) and Windsor (+6.0%) posted notable rent increases, a trend worth watching for investors and tenants seeking alternatives to major hubs.

As the market recalibrates, Ontario appears to be holding steadier than its western counterparts, suggesting a potential inflection point ahead of the spring market.

🍁 📊 Maple Pulse: From Sales Slumps to Policy Shocks: A Shifting Housing Landscape

From weak GDP signals to legislative changes and market slowdowns, this edition of Maple Pulse captures the latest developments impacting Canadian borrowers, homeowners, and industry professionals. Here's what you need to know:

• Cloudy Outlook: Economists Doubt BoC’s Q3 Growth Forecast: Economists are casting doubt on the Bank of Canada’s 0.5% Q3 GDP growth forecast, citing economic slowdown, weak retail sales, and missing U.S. trade data due to the American government shutdown. Analysts from JPMorgan and Moody’s suggest that actual growth may be flat or revised downward, challenging the BoC’s optimism. With household spending weakening and September retail sales contracting, expectations for a stronger Q4 handoff are also looking increasingly fragile. (Ron’s take: The Economy is still struggling, which might be bad news overall but from a mortgage point of view could have a silver lining. If the BoC’s optimistic growth expectations don’t pan out, then it has no real excuses left to move to the side lines of rate cuts. Time will tell. Our base case remains that Bank of Canada will cut a further 25 bps at least in early 2026.)

• Retail Sales Slump Signals Cautious Canadian Consumers: Canada's retail sales slowed to their weakest pace in over a year, rising just 0.2% in Q3, with September sales down 0.7%. The slowdown reflects cautious consumer spending amid U.S. trade tensions and reduced population growth. Auto sales dipped sharply, while core retail activity remained flat. Analysts say the data suggests only modest GDP growth and is unlikely to influence the Bank of Canada’s December rate decision, with economic momentum expected to stay muted. (Ron’s take: Adds to the previous point. Bank of Canada may not move just over retail sales, but overall sluggishness in the economy is something that could make it move.)

• Downtown Toronto Condo Market Hits New Low with Just 25 Sales in October: Only 25 new condos sold in Toronto’s core last month, marking a dramatic slowdown from 99 in October 2024 and 302 in 2023. Across the GTA, sales and new project launches remain weak as high development costs clash with buyer affordability. With benchmark prices over $1 million, developers struggle to compete with cheaper resale options. Some areas like Vaughan saw boosts due to reduced builder fees, but industry leaders warn structural reforms are urgently needed. (Ron’s take: The buyers are there, and we can attest to it, based on our conversations with potential homeowners. The disconnect remains with sellers not wanting to price according to the market. In any case heading into the end of fall and winter, sales will slow down. Even then, only 25 condos getting sold is shocking.)

• Bill 60 Passes: What Ontario Tenants Need to Know: Ontario’s Bill 60, now passed and awaiting royal assent, introduces major changes to tenancy laws under the guise of boosting housing supply. Landlords can now file for eviction after 7 days of non-payment (down from 15), and tenants face tighter deadlines for appeals. Compensation for evictions due to landlord personal use may no longer apply if proper notice is given. Critics say the bill erodes tenant rights and speeds up evictions, while the government claims it will streamline housing and reduce delays. (Ron’s take: The govt pushed this one through despite massive opposition from tenants and tenant advocacy groups. Rather than these measures it might be have been more meaningful to take care of the existing Landlord and Tenant board issues. After all the mechanism to deal with defaults etc. is there. It’s just extremely inefficient at the moment.)

• Ford Pushes to Expand HST Break for All New Home Buyers: Premier Doug Ford is calling for the HST break on new homes—currently limited to first-time buyers purchasing under $1 million—to apply to all new homebuyers. With new home sales plunging, Ford argues broader tax relief could boost sales and stimulate the economy. While no official policy change has been announced, industry groups support the move, citing job losses and unsold inventory. Critics say expanding the exemption may lower prices, upsetting current homeowners. (Ron’s take: This could be good news IF builders pass on the savings to homeowners and actually reduce prices. Could be great for new homeowners, although existing home prices could decline a bit. Will see if this passes though.)

Mortgage Mastery: The Real Impact of Foreign Investment on Canadian Housing

Foreign investment is one of the most talked-about — and most misunderstood — forces in Canada’s real-estate landscape. It’s often blamed for rising prices and shrinking affordability, yet the data tells a more nuanced story. In this edition of Mortgage Mastery, we break down what foreign capital actually looks like in Canada, how much influence it truly has on home prices, and why recent policy changes may have less impact than many expect.

How Big Is Foreign Ownership, Really?

Foreign investors tend to dominate the conversation around affordability, but the numbers tell a different story. Non-resident buyers account for roughly 2–6% of residential properties across Canada — a small slice even in major hubs like the GTA and Vancouver. Their presence is real, but not nearly as large as public perception often suggests.

Where Foreign Investment Does Matter

Foreign capital historically flowed toward markets with strong fundamentals: economic stability, clear property rights, and global desirability. These buyers often paid premiums, adding liquidity and occasionally supporting new development in undersupplied areas. Their influence, however, was always secondary to broader forces such as supply shortages, interest rates, domestic investor activity, and record immigration levels.

The Foreign Buyer Ban: Market Game-Changer or Symbolic Move?

Canada’s foreign-buyer ban, introduced in 2023 and extended to 2027, was designed to curb speculative demand and ease affordability pressures. Yet early industry commentary indicates the policy has had minimal impact on pricing trends — largely because foreign buyers were never a major driver of national demand.

Takeaway for Canadians

Foreign investment shapes sentiment more than fundamentals. Canada’s affordability challenges still hinge on supply constraints, construction costs, and rate cycles. For brokers, buyers, and homeowners, understanding these bigger forces matters far more than the headline noise around foreign capital.

Closing Costs: The Plot Twist No Buyer Asked For

When the closing costs cost more than your first car… and your second.😂

Remember: wealth grows a lot faster when you fix the leaks instead of bragging about the faucet.