All I Want for Christmas Is... Stable Rates (Almost There!)

📊 Rate Watch: Mortgage Rates React to Surprising Economic Data

Canada posted 54,000 new jobs in November, reinforcing the surprisingly firm GDP reading from the week prior. But beneath the surface, job quality weakened: gains came entirely from part-time positions, while full-time work declined. The drop in unemployment to 6.5% was also flattered by 26,000 Canadians leaving the labour force. Encouraging on paper — but not a sign of broad-based strength.

Bond Yields Jump, Fixed Rates Follow

Despite mixed fundamentals, the strong headline data pushed Government of Canada bond yields sharply higher over the end of last week. Several lenders quickly increased fixed mortgage rates, and near-term pressure remains tilted upward as markets respond to any hint of economic resilience.

U.S. Trends Add Additional Upward Pressure

U.S. Treasury yields are also rising — even with weak U.S. job data and the US fed rate cut. Persistent U.S. inflation has investors concerned that more easing could rekindle price pressures, and those fears are lifting yields. Higher Treasury yields often spill over into Canadian markets, adding more upward force on fixed rates.

What About Variable Rates?

Variable-rate discounts off prime were unchanged last week, and the Bank of Canada not only held rates, they also indicated they will continue to hold rates. Rising bond yields have sparked speculation about future hikes, but the Bank did push back with dovish language to keep conditions supportive.

Bottom Line

Fixed rates have nudged higher, variables remain steady, and short-term rate movements will be driven more by bond-market volatility than central-bank action. The short term rates fluctuation could be messy (again, mainly because of bond volatility), so it’s best to lock in fixed rates if you have a renewal or purchase coming up in the next couple of months. However we expect the choppiness in rates to be less pronounced overall in 2026.

Real Estate Radar: From GTA to Waterloo: A Softer, Slower Market Defines November

The Greater Toronto Area housing market remained subdued in November 2025, as both prices and sales activity declined. Despite multiple rate cuts over the past year, affordability remains a major hurdle, keeping many buyers on the sidelines.

Prices Continue to Drift Lower

• The MLS benchmark price fell to $951,700, down 5.8% year-over-year and 0.5% month-over-month.

• The average home price in the GTA dropped to $1,039,458, a 6.0% annual decrease, while the median price landed at $875,000, down 7.4% from last year.

Sales Decline Amid Slower Demand

• A total of 5,010 homes were sold across the GTA in November — a 14.7% decrease from last year and down 18.4% from October.

• New listings fell by 30.7% month-over-month, tightening supply but not enough to spark a rebound in prices.

Segment Snapshot

• Detached: $1.35M (▼ 7.3% YoY)

• Semi-detached: $997K (▼ 7.4%)

• Townhouse: $913K (▼ 8.2%)

• Condo: $663K (▼ 3.8%)

Waterloo Region Market Cools Further in November

Sales Continue to Decline

• Home sales in the Waterloo Region fell to 465 units in November 2025, marking a 14.8% drop from last year and sitting well below the ten-year average.

• Detached, townhouse, and semi-detached sales all declined, while condo sales were the only segment to see growth, rising 11.3% year-over-year.

Prices Edge Lower Across Property Types

• The average sale price dipped to $713,751, down 5.4% annually.

• Detached homes averaged $827,617, townhouses $595,337, condos $422,056, and semis $635,375, with most categories recording year-over-year decreases.

Inventory Rises and Market Slows

• Active listings increased to 1,757 homes, the highest November level in over a decade, contributing to a 3.4-month supply.

• Homes also took longer to sell, averaging 39 days on market, giving buyers more time and leverage in negotiations.

🍁 📊 Maple Pulse: At the Bottom? The Rate Drop Slowdown Explained

Rates may be settling, but the story beneath the surface is anything but calm. This edition’s Maple Pulse dives into the market forces, policy moves, and trade uncertainty driving mortgage trends as we head toward 2026.

• Bank of Canada Signals Steady Rates Through 2026 Amid Trade Uncertainty: Economists say the Bank of Canada has dampened expectations for any 2026 rate hikes after holding its policy rate at 2.25%, the bottom of its neutral range. The Bank emphasized resilience in the economy despite U.S. tariffs, but flagged muted hiring, weak trade-sensitive sectors, and ongoing slack. Analysts now expect rates to remain on hold through most—or all—of 2026, with any move dependent on inflation trends and the outcome of U.S.–Canada trade and CUSMA negotiations. (Ron’s take: If you zoom out a bit from the weekly or monthly swings in expectation on rate movement, what you will notice is that the trend of lowering rates has mostly bottomed out. Our take is that rates are at the bottom or at least very close to the bottom. So if someone’s waiting for rates to go a lot lower, then they’ll probably have to keep waiting for a long time.)

• Bond Yield Surge Pushes Fixed Mortgage Rates Back Above 4%: Fixed mortgage rates have jumped above 4% as Canadian bond yields surged on strong GDP and jobs headlines—despite underlying economic softness. Experts say markets reacted to headline data, even though gains came from part-time jobs and shrinking labour force participation, not true strength. Rising yields, government deficits, and tariff-driven inflation are keeping fixed rates elevated. With 60% of mortgages renewing by 2026, households will feel the squeeze, though widespread defaults are unlikely. Borrowers are urged to shop aggressively and weigh fixed-rate stability against variable-rate savings.(Ron’s take: This one was surprising. There has definitely been a sharp increase in fixed rates mainly because of the strong jobs report. The CAD also pushed up. However as you can see from the rates chart above, we still have access to rates which are lower than what most lenders are offering. For e.g., we have a promo going on for uninsured mortgages (refinances, above $1.5 million purchase etc.) that’s at less than 3.8%, whereas the best that’s out in the market is close to or above 4%.)

• US Fed Delivers Third Rate Cut but Signals Only One More in 2026: The U.S. Federal Reserve cut its policy rate by 25 bps to 3.5%–3.75%, marking a third straight reduction, while signalling just one cut in 2026. The decision exposed sharp divisions, with three dissenting votes split between preferring no cut or a larger one. Policymakers remain torn between cooling labour markets and persistent inflation. New forecasts show modest economic strength and slower inflation ahead, but uncertainty—including a government shutdown and upcoming Fed leadership changes—clouds the outlook. (Ron’s take: The US situation is hard to analyze as there’s so much uncertainty there, not to mention political pressure on the Fed. At this point it’s just wait and watch, and deal with the aftermath of the latest whatever coming out of Washington DC. From our side of the border, what we need to watch out for is CUSMA negotiations and what final shape, if any, the agreement takes.)

• Rate Hold Creates Stability—but Uncertainty Still Weighs on Housing Market: Experts say the Bank of Canada’s decision to hold rates at 2.25% is giving buyers and sellers a more predictable environment amid the U.S.–Canada trade war. Lower borrowing costs and softer prices—especially in the GTA—are creating opportunities for first-time buyers, while sellers appear more open to negotiation. Still, uncertainty around jobs, tariffs, and CUSMA talks is keeping many on the sidelines. Fixed rates remain competitive, variable rates steady, and renewers will face smaller-than-expected payment shocks. (Ron’s take: We agree with this analysis. The uncertainty around rates, if they dissipate further, will embolden potential buyers esp. first time home buyers. The see-sawing of rates over the last 2+ years definitely dampened real estate in Canada. Hopefully with a much calmer situation expected next year, some of that uncertainty will dissipate. The economic uncertainty outside of rates, esp. in the labour market, still remains though.)

• Strong Job Gains Reduce Odds of Near-Term Rate Cuts: Canada added 54,000 jobs in November—mostly part-time and driven by youth employment—helping nudge the jobless rate lower despite a shrinking labour force. Gains were concentrated in health care, food services, and natural resources, with Alberta leading provincial growth. Wages rose 3.6% year over year. Economists say the strong labour data, combined with hot inflation and upbeat GDP results, makes a Bank of Canada rate cut highly unlikely next week—and likely unnecessary through 2026. (Ron’s take: This was great news for the economy and the job market, but not that great from a rates perspective. As mentioned earlier this pushed bond yields up sharply and like clockwork, fixed mortgage rates went up in tandem. Barring some unexpected events, we don’t expect this trend of increasing rates to continue at least in the short term though bonds yields fluctuations could cause choppiness esp. fixed rates.)

Mortgage Mastery: Impact of Foreign Investment on Ontario Real Estate (Dec 2025 Snapshot)

Foreign investment has always been a talking point in Canadian real estate, but its actual influence is often misunderstood. With new rules, shifting global capital flows, and Ontario’s evolving market dynamics, it’s worth taking a clear look at what’s really happening today.

Where policy stands today

• Canada’s foreign buyer ban (for most residential properties in CMAs like the GTA) now runs from Jan 1, 2023 to Jan 1, 2027.

• Ontario’s Non-Resident Speculation Tax (NRST) is 25% province-wide on eligible purchases by non-residents.

• In 2025, Toronto added a Municipal NRST of 10%, which can bring the total speculation tax for a foreign buyer in the city to 35%, on top of land transfer

How big is foreign ownership, really?

Recent CMHC and Statistics Canada work shows:

• Non-residents own only about 2–6% of homes nationally, with the GTA around 3% of stock.

• CMHC has estimated that roughly 2% of 2021 purchases involved non-Canadians, and newer research suggests foreign ownership is now closer to ~1% of Canadian

Takeaway: foreign money is visible in certain condo and luxury pockets, but it’s not the main driver of prices; population growth, supply constraints, and rates matter more.

What this means for buyers & investors

For local borrowers, the current rules mean:

• Less direct competition from pure foreign investors in entry-level and mid-market homes.

• No impact if you’re a Canadian citizen/PR – you’re not subject to the foreign buyer ban or NRST.

• Some niche opportunities where pre-construction projects or investor-heavy buildings see softer demand.

What realtors and partners should watch

• Screening for residency status early to avoid last-minute surprises on tax or eligibility.

• Knowing key exemptions (certain work/study permits, multi-unit buildings, properties outside CMAs).

• Monitoring how policy evolves: the 2027 sunset date may become a political flashpoint well before we get there.

Memes: When Your House Has More Dough Than You Do 🍪🏡

Gingerbread Equity Crisis 🍬🏡

When even your holiday treats are outperforming the local housing market...
Sometimes all you can do is laugh (and resist the urge to eat your most valuable asset).

A good reminder that curiosity is often wiser than certainty.