The Reset Phase: Steady Rates, Softer Rents, Sharper Decisions

📊 Rate Watch: Rates Steady, But the Crosscurrents Matter

Mortgage rates have opened 2026 on a relatively steady note. While there hasn’t been much week-to-week movement, the economic signals shaping where rates head next are becoming clearer—and they matter more than the headlines suggest.

What’s Driving Rates Right Now

Canadian employment data cooled in December:

• Job growth slowed meaningfully after a strong fall, with roughly 8,000 net jobs added.

• Full-time employment improved, but part-time losses were concentrated among younger workers.

• The unemployment rate rose to 6.8%, largely because more Canadians re-entered the labour force.

• Wage growth eased slightly to 3.4%, but continues to outpace inflation.

Overall, this points to a labour market that’s gradually losing momentum without showing signs of stress. That backdrop supports the Bank of Canada’s view that policy rates are about right for now.

In the U.S., inflation remains sticky:

• December CPI held at 2.7% year-over-year.

• Price pressures in essentials like housing, food, and energy remain persistent.

• Markets are now strongly pricing in a Federal Reserve pause later this month.

Those U.S. dynamics continue to influence global bond markets—and by extension, Canadian fixed mortgage rates.

What This Means for Mortgage Rates

• Fixed rates have remained stable as Government of Canada bond yields stay range-bound, though longer-term upward pressure hasn’t disappeared.

• Variable rates currently price below fixed terms, but lenders have become more cautious with discounts as near-term rate cuts look less imminent.

As shown in this week’s rate snapshot, competitive insured and uninsured mortgage options remain available in the mid-3% to mid-4% range, depending on term and borrower profile.

Bottom Line for Borrowers

• Three- and five-year fixed terms remain the most popular choices.

• The spread between them is still narrow, keeping five-year fixed attractive for borrowers prioritizing certainty.

• Variable rates continue to offer long-term value—but only for those comfortable with interim volatility.

As always, strategy matters more than headlines. Reach out to to us at www.ronmortgages.com to discuss your mortgage needs and custom rates.

Real Estate Radar: Rents Find Some Breathing Room

Real Estate Radar looks beyond headlines to understand what’s really happening on the ground. In this edition we’re covering the rental situation across Canada. Rental conditions across major urban centres continue to ease, with the most visible shifts showing up first in the GTA and surrounding Southern Ontario markets.

GTA & Southern Ontario: Cooling From the Top

• Toronto apartment rents declined 5.1% year-over-year, now sitting near early-2022 levels.

• Two-year declines are more pronounced in several GTA sub-markets, including Oakville, Mississauga, Brampton, and parts of Toronto’s inner suburbs.

• One-bedroom units are leading the pullback, while larger units remain comparatively resilient.

• In markets such as Kitchener-Waterloo, rental conditions are broadly mirroring this trend — more choice for tenants, softer pricing on smaller units, and steadier demand for family-sized rentals.

Ontario-Wide: Stability Isn’t Even

• Across the province, average rents are down roughly 4% year-over-year, reflecting affordability ceilings and increased supply.

• Purpose-built rentals continue to outperform, declining just 1% annually, while condo and secondary-market rentals have seen sharper corrections.

• Three-bedroom units remain a notable exception, posting modest annual gains as multi-earner households and families compete for limited space.

Zooming Out: The National Picture

Nationally, average asking rent fell to $2,060, down 2.3% year-over-year, marking the 15th consecutive month of declines and the lowest level in two-and-a-half years. Even so, rents remain 14% above pre-pandemic levels, underscoring how elevated today’s baseline still is.

Bottom Line

The rental market isn’t collapsing — it’s recalibrating. For tenants, conditions have improved. For property owners and investors, the message is familiar: when affordability hits its limit, momentum slows — but cycles don’t stop, they reset.

🍁 📊 Maple Pulse: Canada’s Housing Market: Cooling, Stalling, and Slowly Stabilizing

Maple Pulse curates the most relevant developments across Canada’s economy, real estate, and mortgage markets, cutting through the noise to focus on what actually matters. Below are a few key stories from the past few days and weeks—along with my take on what they mean for buyers, renters, and homeowners.

Canadian Rents Declined Through 2025: Average asking rents in Canada fell 2.3 per cent year-over-year in December 2025 to $2,060, capping 12 months of declines and the lowest level in 30 months. A Rentals.ca and Urbanation report notes rents dropped 3.1 per cent for 2025, yet remain 14.1 per cent above December 2019 levels. Analysts attribute the slide to record apartment completions, slower population growth, economic uncertainty, and worsening affordability pressures. (Ron’s take: The softer rental market reflects a slowing economy and more realistic immigration levels after an unusually strong period of population growth. That said, the underlying housing shortage hasn’t gone away. Affordable housing remains in short supply across the country, especially in large urban centres. As long as that imbalance persists, rents are unlikely to fall meaningfully. What we’re seeing now looks more like stabilization after an overheated cycle, with rental conditions likely to firm up again as home-buying activity gradually picks up.)

Toronto New Home Sales Slump Puts 100,000 Jobs at Risk: Toronto-area new home sales fell to just 5,314 in 2025, the lowest level in 45 years, with December sales 82 per cent below the 10-year average. BILD calls the situation “absolutely dire,” warning prolonged weakness could endanger up to 100,000 Ontario jobs tied to construction and related industries. High prices, stalled rate cuts, weak confidence, project cancellations, and cheaper resale condos are choking demand, threatening future housing supply into the next decade. (Ron’s take: Governments have announced several measures aimed at supporting new home sales, including expanded HST rebates, and those should help once they’re fully implemented. This looks more like a cyclical slowdown than a permanent shift, especially if builders continue to adjust pricing to reflect current market realities. We’re already seeing that happen through incentives, upgrades, and other concessions. For buyers who are well-advised and working with the right professionals, this could actually present an opportunity to consider a new build rather than a reason to avoid the market altogether.)

How Toronto’s Condo Market Might Recover: Toronto’s condo recovery will likely start with smaller, well-located projects, especially near transit or in amenity-rich downtown neighbourhoods, as developers try to reduce risk and timelines. Larger, end-user-oriented units and luxury downsizer product are expected to fare better than tiny investor units, with more purpose-built rentals replacing some investor-driven condos. The traditional presale financing model is under strain, and experts expect a slow rebound, with limited new supply and recovery stretching three to five years or longer. (Ron’s take: With freehold prices still out of reach for many buyers, condos aren’t going anywhere despite the current gloom. In fact, well-located condo projects across key GTA nodes could present attractive opportunities at today’s pricing. That said, risks remain—most notably the possibility of project cancellations in a weaker presale environment. This is one area where experience really matters. Working with knowledgeable, independent professionals who understand the location, the project, and the developer is essential to navigating the risks and separating opportunity from speculation.)

Why Mortgage Brokers Still Matter in Canada’s Digital Era: Nearly half of recent Canadian homebuyers still use mortgage brokers because the mortgage system remains complex and fragmented. A 2025 WOWA survey found 45 per cent of buyers worked with brokers, who provide access to a wide range of bank and non-bank lenders, unadvertised rates, and solutions for declined or non-traditional borrowers. Brokers also fill knowledge gaps around rate negotiation and options beyond a client’s primary bank, while fully digital, instant-approval platforms remain limited by the lack of open banking and real-time CRA income verification. (Ron’s take: I became a mortgage broker for a simple reason: the homebuying and mortgage process in Canada is still highly complex. Until that changes, brokers will continue to play an important role in helping clients navigate lender options, approval rules, and trade-offs that aren’t always obvious. This is especially true for first-time buyers, newcomers to Canada, and anyone with non-standard income or borrowing needs. And since brokers typically don’t charge clients a fee, having a conversation with one is often a low-risk, high-value step when exploring mortgage options.)

Navigating Mortgages in a Stabilized Rate Era: With mortgage rates stabilizing, Canadians waiting on the sidelines may find it a reasonable time to buy rather than hold out for significantly lower rates that may never materialize. Broker Leah Zlatkin notes lenders are even nudging some pricing higher, making today’s options more relevant than hypothetical future deals. Borrowers should look beyond rate to features like portability, prepayment privileges, and HELOC access, and choose between fixed or variable based on their tolerance for payment volatility and stress. (Ron’s take: Agreed. Mortgage rates appear relatively stable for now. A rate around 3.75% is unlikely to suddenly drop to 2.99% or spike back to 5% in the near term. For buyers whose expectations align with today’s pricing and available inventory, this is as reasonable a time as any to consider a mortgage. While there are many factors beyond rates that go into a purchase decision, from a financing perspective the extreme volatility of the past three years appears to be behind us—for now.) 

🎉 🌟💼Success Spotlight: Refinance Mortgage Funded For Home Improvement 🏗️💰 🎉

Mortgage Mastery: Fixed, Variable, or Something in Between?

Mortgage Mastery is where we strip away the jargon and headlines to focus on how mortgages actually work in real life. This edition tackles one of the most common — and most misunderstood — questions Canadian borrowers face: Should I choose a fixed rate, a variable rate, or something in between?

Fixed Rates: Certainty First

A fixed-rate mortgage locks in your interest rate for the full term, typically three or five years in Canada. Your payment stays the same regardless of what happens to interest rates. For many borrowers, that predictability makes budgeting simpler and sleep easier — especially in uncertain economic periods. The trade-off? Fixed rates are usually priced a bit higher because you’re paying for that stability upfront.

Variable Rates: Flexible, But Not Passive

Variable rates move with your lender’s prime rate, which changes as interest rates rise or fall. Today, variable rates often start lower than fixed rates, which can mean savings over time — but only if you’re comfortable with some movement. Depending on your mortgage structure, your payment may fluctuate, or your payment may stay the same while the amount going toward principal changes.

Something in Between: Hybrids and Splits

Some borrowers opt for hybrid or split mortgages, where part of the loan is fixed and part is variable. This approach can soften the impact of rate changes while still allowing some exposure if rates decline — a middle ground for those who dislike extremes.

So… Which One Is “Best”?

There’s no universal winner. The right choice depends on your risk tolerance, cash flow flexibility, and how you’d feel if rates moved unexpectedly during your term.

If you’re weighing your options — or wondering how today’s rates actually apply to your situation — it’s worth having a proper conversation. Reach out to RonMortgages today to walk through the numbers and choose a structure that fits your life, not the headlines.

Memes: Intergenerational Living, Rebranded. 🏠

Proof that housing affordability now requires parental approval 👀.

In housing, as in life, not every obstacle is an enemy — and not every easy solution is actually your friend.

Rising prices, tighter credit, and louder headlines can make the path forward feel adversarial. But patience, planning, and the right guidance tend to reveal themselves quietly, not dramatically.

The goal isn’t to win a fight with the market. It’s to understand it well enough to move through it on your terms.