War, Oil and a Housing Market on Edge

📊 Rate Watch: Oil, War & Rising Mortgage Rates

Mortgage markets had one story last week. They have a very different one now — and it’s pushing fixed-rate pressure back to the forefront.

The story changed fast

A week ago, the focus was tariffs, trade uncertainty, and a softer economic outlook. Now, the bigger story is the war in the Middle East. First and foremost, that means tragic human suffering. But from a mortgage perspective, it has also shifted the rate conversation very quickly.

Why fixed rates are moving up

Normally, when geopolitical risk spikes, investors flock to government bonds and yields fall. This time, that usual pattern didn’t hold. U.S. Treasury yields moved higher instead, and Canadian bond yields followed.

A big reason is oil. Conflict in the Middle East tends to push energy prices up, which adds inflation pressure. Markets are also still uneasy about heavy U.S. deficit spending, and war only adds to that concern. The result is that bond markets are now leaning toward higher yields, not lower ones.

What it means for borrowers

That matters here because Canadian fixed mortgage rates are priced off Government of Canada bond yields. Lenders were trimming fixed rates not long ago, but that has started to reverse. More near-term upward pressure would not be surprising.

Variable-rate pricing has held steadier so far, but expectations for more Bank of Canada cuts have also cooled.

My take

If you’re shopping for a fixed rate, waiting may not be your friend in this market. Particularly true for renewals. If you’re leaning variable, there may still be longer-term value, but only if you’re comfortable with some volatility along the way.

For current pricing, please see the attached rate sheet/graphic.

Real Estate Radar: Sales Down, Supply Tighter: GTA & Waterloo Housing Update (February 2026)

The Greater Toronto Area housing market softened in February, but supply tightened even faster than demand.

Home sales totaled 3,868, down 6.3% year-over-year, while new listings dropped sharply by 17.7% to 10,705. Because listings declined more than sales, overall market conditions actually tightened slightly compared to last year.

The average selling price came in at $1,008,968, a 7.1% decline from February 2025, while the benchmark home price index fell about 7.9% year-over-year. Month-to-month, both prices and sales edged lower compared with January.

Many buyers continue to wait on the sidelines, hoping prices stabilize before re-entering the market. Industry estimates suggest over 100,000 potential GTA buyers are currently delaying purchases, watching both pricing trends and broader economic signals.

If listing activity continues to soften through the spring, limited supply combined with pent-up demand could bring stronger competition later in the year.

WATERLOO REGION (Kitchener + Waterloo + Cambridge)

In the Waterloo Region, market activity also slowed. Sales declined 8.1% year-over-year, while new listings dropped 12–20% depending on property type. Median prices fell to about $790,000 for single-family homes and $503,000 for townhomes and condos. Homes are also taking longer to sell, with days on market rising sharply — another sign buyers are taking more time before committing.

🍁 📊 Maple Pulse: War Shock Hits Home: Rates, Condos and Falling Prices

This edition of Maple Pulse looks at a housing market being pulled in different directions. Regulators are raising concerns about condo valuations, global conflict is adding fresh pressure to rates, Toronto prices are still slipping, and new mortgage rules are giving first-time buyers a stronger foothold in expensive markets.

Canada Regulator Flags Risky Condo Mortgage Appraisals: Canada’s banking regulator warned major lenders that using “blanket” condo appraisals based on old purchase prices may breach rules capping uninsured mortgages at 80% of current market value. With condo prices down 10–30% from 2022 peaks and many units unsold in cities like Toronto and Vancouver, banks face greater risk of borrower defaults. OSFI has pressed banks, prompting RBC to soften marketing that implied approvals would remain valid until closing, and is discussing remediation and expectations with the industry.

​BoC Warns Rate Hikes May Be Needed Even in Weak Economy: Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki says structural supply shocks from protectionist U.S. trade policies, strained Canada-U.S. relations, AI, geopolitical tensions, aging demographics, and extreme weather can force the Bank of Canada to raise rates even when growth is weak, to keep inflation at target. When supply shocks threaten persistent inflation, policy must tighten; when they mainly hurt activity with limited inflation impact, the bank is more likely to hold or cut rates. She noted these issues are not part of current deliberations, with the key rate expected to remain at 2.25 per cent on March 18.

How the Iran War Threatens Canadian Mortgage Rates: The Iran–Middle East conflict has driven up oil prices, lifting inflation risks and pushing Canadian bond yields and mortgage rates higher. Experts see two paths: a quick U.S. de-escalation that restores stable rates, or a prolonged war that forces the Bank of Canada to hike. Homeowners are urged to secure rate holds now, consider early renewal, and talk to lenders about options like extending amortizations to manage potentially higher payments and job-loss risks.

Toronto Home Prices Keep Sliding as Listings, Sales Fall: Toronto-area home prices fell 7% year over year in February to an average of $1.009 million, extending a full year of annual declines and leaving prices 24% below the February 2022 peak. Detached, semi-detached, townhouse and condo prices all dropped from last year, with Toronto detached homes averaging $1.57 million and 905 condos $549,563. Both sales and new listings were also down, giving buyers plenty of choice, though TRREB expects tighter conditions and potential price growth later in 2026 if listings shrink and trade uncertainty eases.

New Mortgage Rules Boost First-Time Buyers in Costly Markets: Federal mortgage rule changes, including 30-year insured amortizations on new builds and a higher price cap of $1.5 million, are significantly increasing first-time buyer activity, especially in Toronto and Vancouver. Insurers report insured volumes in the GTA roughly doubling as buyers gain about 10% more purchasing power and qualify more easily. Overall market conditions remain uneven, with Ontario facing ongoing price declines and condo investors retreating, but experts say Canada’s mortgage system and borrower credit quality remain very strong.

Mortgage Mastery: Pre-Approval vs. Reality

Mortgage Mastery simplifies the mortgage world—explaining common terms, lender rules, and financing strategies that many buyers only discover the hard way.

What a Pre-Approval Helps With

A mortgage pre-approval is a great starting point, not a finish line. It can show the maximum mortgage you may qualify for, estimate your payments, and in many cases hold a rate for 60 to 130 days, depending on the lender. To issue one, the lender or broker reviews your finances, documents, and will likely run a credit check.

What It Does Not Promise

This is the part buyers often miss: a pre-approval does not guarantee you’ll get the mortgage. The amount you’re finally approved for can still depend on the property value and the size of your down payment. Even after a buyer is pre-approved, the lender still checks whether the home meets its standards and whether the full file still fits its guidelines.

Why Buyers Get Surprised

That is why “I’m pre-approved” and “my mortgage is fully approved” are not the same thing. In practice, buyers can get caught off guard if they add new debt, their job or income changes, their credit shifts, or the property doesn’t appraise the way expected. With federally regulated lenders, borrowers also have to qualify under the mortgage stress test using the higher of 5.25% or the contract rate plus 2%.

The Real Takeaway

The smartest way to view a pre-approval is as a financial snapshot. It tells you what may work based on today’s numbers. The real goal is making sure that when you find the right home, your financing still works in the real world — not just on paper.

Memes & Motivation: The ‘I’ll Sit When It’s Done’ Problem 😅

Don’t just learn the answers. Learn to question the questions. That’s where real understanding begins. ✨

🧭 2026 Mortgage Check-In

If you’re:

• Renewing in 2026

• Planning to buy this year

• Unsure how rates may impact your budget

I’m offering a 15-minute Mortgage Strategy Call — no paperwork, no pressure.

We’ll cover:

• What your payment likely looks like at renewal

• Whether switching lenders makes sense

• How much you can safely qualify for in today’s environment

If you’d like one, just reply to this email with: RENEW, BUY or PLAN.

I’ll send you a booking link.